Jeff Thredgold, CSP, Economic Futurist

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Read this week’s Tea Leaf :

May 7, 2008
“Whither Recession?”

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entertaining and economist in the same sentence? yes
learn more about money and music

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Wednesday, May 7, 2008

 

 

 

The U.S. economy barely grew at a 0.6% real (after inflation) annual rate during 2008’s first quarter. This compares to identical growth in the previous quarter.  Recession in 2008?  A mild recession may be underway, though we may not know for sure for months. We expect modest U.S. economic growth to return in 2008’s second half

 

 

 

 

 

The U.S. unemployment rate dipped to 5.0% in April from 5.1% in March. The U.S. economy lost another 20,000 net jobs in April, much better than the consensus forecast of a loss of 75,000 jobs. The estimated net decline of 260,000 jobs during 2008’s first four months was a painful contrast to the gain of 374,000 net new jobs during 2007’s first four months

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer prices in 2007 rose 4.1%, the highest annual climb since 1990. We expect a more modest rise of around 3.0% this year

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Federal Reserve cut its important federal funds rate seven times by a total of 3.25% between 9/18/07 and 4/30/08, with the rate falling to 2.00%. We expect the Fed to now move to the sidelines for the balance of the year

 

 

 

 

 

 

We remain bullish on stocks

 

 

 

 

 

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