Jeff Thredgold, CSP, Economic Futurist

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Read this week’s Tea Leaf :

July 23, 2008
“A Parent’s Letter”

see jeff in action
entertaining and economist in the same sentence? yes
learn more about money and music

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Wednesday, July 23, 2008

 

 

 

The U.S. economy grew at a revised 1.0% real (after inflation) annual rate during 2008’s first quarter. This compares to 0.6% growth in the previous quarter.  Recession in 2008?  A mild recession may be underway, though we may not know for sure for months.  We expect modest U.S. economic growth to return in 2008’s second half

 

 

 

 

 

The U.S. unemployment rate remained at 5.5% in June 2008. The 5.5% rate is the highest since October 2004.  The U.S. Department of Labor reported a net decline of 62,000 jobs in June, the sixth monthly decline in a row.  The average loss of 73,000 jobs monthly during 2008’s first six months was much less painful than the 181,000 average monthly job loss during the 2001 recession

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer prices in 2007 rose 4.1%, the highest annual climb since 1990. We expect a somewhat more modest rise of around 3.6% this year

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Federal Reserve left its important federal funds rate unchanged at its FOMC meeting on June 25. This follows seven rate cuts totaling 3.25% between September 18, 2007 and April 30, 2008, with the rate falling to 2.00%.  We expect the Fed to stay on the sidelines for now, with a possible move to increase rates later in the year to contain inflation

 

 

 

 

 

 

We remain bullish on stocks

 

 

 

 

 

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