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December 27, 2006
Night at the Museum
Written by Jeff Thredgold, CSP, President, Thredgold Economic Associates
One of the painful realities of life as an economist and professional speaker is that the subject matter of economics is typically viewed (with good reason!) by the general public as confusing, intimidating, and boring. As a result, trying to present weekly economic and financial information with an unusual twist can occasionally be a most welcome change.
Warning!! This week’s Tea Leaf is my semi-annual economic, financial, and political update…using today’s current movie titles. My sincere apology in advance to anyone I might offend.
The beginning of a new year seems an appropriate time to review where we’ve been and where we might be going…
The American Economy
U.S. economic growth has been quite good over the past few years. The economy has registered solid gains in employment, low inflation, and low interest rates.
Still, millions yearn for an ERA GON by, when THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS in this HOME OF THE BRAVE lacked the CHARLOTTE’S WEB of global terrorism. Life then focused more on DRIVING LESSONS for young people, rather than the horrific BABEL and TENACIOUS Defense of freedom and life in the Middle East.
The Global Economy
Strong performance of the global economy is a positive development for America. Solid global growth, combined with a weaker U.S. dollar versus major currencies, brings THE GOOD GERMAN and other TURISTAS to our shores, spending aggressively.
The Stock Market
FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION we review a stock market BREAKING AND ENTERING record territory. Our view? Solid gains continue to be expected in coming years.
Iraq & Terrorism
Meanwhile, American and British political and military leaders debate the TIME TO LEAVE Iraq, with THE ESCAPE CLAUSE hopefully providing for political stability in the region. Others see a repeat of our experience in Vietnam, fearing the regional APOCALYPTO that could result. As then, we fight an enemy using THE PAINTED VEILs of women and UNACCOMPANIED MINORS as military shields.
We collectively wish Osama bin Laden a less than WONDROUS OBLIVION.  We feel some level of satisfaction as he presumably lives a Spartan existence in the CAVE OF THE YELLOW DOG.
Politics
Our WE ARE MARSHALL role in the world will be vigorously debated in the halls of Congress. In addition, THE DEPARTED Republican majority will continue to rue that early November day when they were FLUSHED AWAY.
We wonder whether the voters’ SHUT UP AND SING wake-up call to Republican leaders regarding desired political cooperation will get through. At the same time, President Bush wonders how THE HISTORY BOYS in future generations will grade his White House performance.
New Leadership
DREAMGIRLS Nancy Pelosi and Hillary Rodham Clinton envision THE PRESTIGE of Democratic leadership that hopefully cements political control for years to come. Meanwhile, other liberal leadership in the new Congress elaBORATe wishes to DECK THE HALLS with new spending programs and, ultimately, with higher taxes on the wealthy.
At the Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben Bernanke, THE GOOD SHEPHERD of monetary policy, takes rising comfort in his CASINO ROYALE bet in late June 2006 to move to the sidelines, following 17 consecutive monetary tightening moves. Wall Street anticipates the HAPPY FEET feeling of likely short-term interest rate cuts by mid-year 2007, as the Fed might be able to increase THE FOUNTAIN of money growth at that time.
Other forecasters see that STRANGER THAN FICTION view as a SHORTBUS to losses. This vocal minority sees FURther interest rate hikes still to come.
Turf War
On a lighter note, Florida and Ohio State will battle after THE HOLIDAY for college football supremacy, with one presumably emerging as THE QUEEN bee and the other as THE BRIDESMAID. Michigan, still clinging to ROCKY BALBOA-type hope of a national title, feels the CURSE of a tight loss to the Buckeyes on November 18…and presumably suffered through a BLACK CHRISTMAS.
“Tea”ser
Do the Hokey Pokey once a week, just in case that’s really what it’s all about.
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